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Both were extreme, both were improbable and both needed to be insured against. He thinks that much of the academic literature about finance is nonsense, for instance. Generate a few hundred thousand hurricanes, and you generate not only dozens of massive hurricanes that hit Georgia but also a few that hit, say, Rhode Island. And most of them were in America. The more John Seo looked into the insurance industry, the more it seemed to be teetering at the edge of ruin. Real history serves as a guide β€” it enables him to see, for instance, that the odds of big hurricanes making landfall north of Cape Hatteras are far below the odds of them striking south of Cape Hatteras. Clark soon found herself in a role for which she was, on the surface at least, ill suited: fanatic. To do this, the R. She sat outside at a small black table, alone. Eleven insurance companies went bust. The logic of catastrophe is very different: either no one is affected or vast numbers of people are. This had happened once before, in , when the city of Hamburg burned to the ground and bankrupted the entire German insurance industry many times over. In the mids, when Wall Street first noticed money to be made covering the financial risks associated with hurricanes and earthquakes, it was inevitable that someone would call John Seo to ask him if he could figure out how to make sense of it. New Orleanians had made an art form of ignoring threats far more likely than this; indeed, their carelessness was a big reason they were supposedly more charming than other Americans. Right away, he could see the problem with natural catastrophe. In its Bay Area offices, R. If builders in South Florida had ignored the building codes and built houses to lower standards, the losses might come in even higher. If there were a great number of rich cities scattered across the planet that might plausibly be destroyed by an earthquake, the insurer could spread its exposure to the losses by selling earthquake insurance to all of them. The only way to handle them was to spread them widely, and the only way to do that was to get them out of the insurance industry and onto Wall Street. No individual car accident can be foreseen, obviously, but the total number of accidents over a large population is amazingly predictable. John Seo is oddly sympathetic to the complaint.

It was Aug. The old insurance companies would still sell policies to the individual residents of Hamburg. She had abandoned math for motherhood, and then motherhood for doughnuts, after her most promising son insisted on attending M.

There were concentrations of wealth in the world that defied the logic of insurance. Still, everywhere he goes, he has been drawn to a similar thorny problem: the right price to venetian macau currency to insure against potential losses from extremely unlikely financial events.

It was almost as if I was taking it as a price signal. Fifteen and a half billion dollars exceeded all of the insurance premiums ever collected in Dade County. They enabled you to get a handle on the risk as best you could while acknowledging that you would never know it exactly.

Tail risk, broadly speaking, is whatever financial cataclysm is believed by markets to have a 1 percent chance or less of happening. Less interested in money and more interested in ideas than a Wall Street person is meant to be.

And it was true: New Orleanians found pleasure even in oblivion. They had been lucky. It just seemed like such an obvious thing to do. The models these companies created differed from peril to peril, but they all had one thing in common: they accepted that the past was an imperfect guide to the future.

Until then, he had specialized in financial, not natural, disasters. But there was an exception: an American so improbably prepared for the havoc Tropical Depression 12 was about to wreak that he might as well have planned it. He inherited not money but math.

She projected catastrophic storms from the distant past onto the present-day population and storms from the more recent past onto richer and more populated areas than they had actually hit. Applied Insurance Research, she called it, or A. She spoke for 45 minutes but had no sense that she had been heard.

His this web page was John Seo, he was 39 years old and he ran a hedge fund in Westport, Conn. To better judge the potential cost of catastrophe, Clark in natures casino new york times very long-term historical data on hurricanes.

Revenues tripled. Everything was suddenly more vivid and memorable. If it had gone into Miami, it could have bankrupted the whole industry. It allows him to assign different odds to different stretches of coastline without making the in natures casino new york times distinctions that actual hurricanes have made in the last years.

They had sacrificed a lot for his academic career. In exchange, the cat-bond seller β€” an insurance company looking to insure itself against extreme losses β€” pays the buyer a high rate of interest. She ordered a smoked-turkey and Boursin cheese sandwich on French bread, with lettuce and tomato, and a large Diet Coke.

People thought they had already figured it out. And so if you relied solely on the past, you would predict that no hurricane ever will hit the Georgia coast.

His parents had raised him to think, but his thoughts in natures casino new york times interrupted once he left Harvard. The firm that called him was Lehman Brothers, whose offer enticed Seo to quit his job and spend his first year at Lehman learning all he could about the old-fashioned insurance industry.

The casino baltimore md clams caused by even the biggest natural disaster would be a drop in the bucket to the broader capital markets.

But Seo soon turned Wall Street into his own private science lab, and his continued interest in deep questions mollified even his father.

But they would turn around and hand some of the premiums they collected to Cologne Re short for reinsurance in exchange click at this page taking on losses over a certain amount.

But in their blindness to certain threats, they could not have been more typically American. Several hours earlier, Hurricane Andrew had struck Florida, and she knew immediately that the event could define her career. The big insurance companies ran up and down the Gulf Coast selling as many policies as they could.

Geico sells auto insurance to more than seven million Americans. But no one asked questions either. They were comfortable with their own subjective judgment. John took a physics degree from M. But what she really was doing β€” without quite realizing it β€” was waiting, waiting for a storm.

The losses it suffered in Tokyo would be offset by the gains it made from the cities not destroyed by an earthquake. No hurricane has hit the coast of Georgia, for instance, since detailed records have been kept.

But there was a connection between financial catastrophe and natural catastrophe. After Hurricane Andrew came a shift in the culture of catastrophe. Cologne Re would protect itself by diversifying at a higher level β€” by selling catastrophic fire insurance to lots of other towns.

Yet insurers continued to cover in natures casino new york times, sometimes unenthusiastically, sometimes recklessly. Then she wrote her paper about it. Two of his three brothers received Ph. After an earthquake flattens Tokyo, a Japanese earthquake insurer is in deep trouble: millions of customers file claims.

It was a nice sunny day in Boston. For decades Americans had been lurching toward catastrophe. An insurance company could function only if it was able to control its exposure to loss. But that makes no sense: the coastline above, in South Carolina, and below, in Florida, has been ravaged by storms.

She faxed the numbers to insurers, then walked to Au Bon Pain. But when John told her that he was leaving the university for In natures casino new york times Street, she wept.

One big player in the insurance industry took closer notice of her work and paid her enough to start a business. His wife was pregnant with their in natures casino new york times child, and the health plan at Brandeis University, where he in natures casino new york times accepted a job, declared her pregnancy a pre-existing condition.

In the foreign-exchange market, the tail event might be the dollar falling by one-third in a year; in the bond market, it might be interest rates moving 3 percent in six months; in the stock market, it might be a 30 percent crash.

Wealth had become far too concentrated in a handful of extraordinarily treacherous places. And virtually no one β€” not even the weather bookies β€” fully understood the true odds. Whatever frustration she may have felt, she hid, as she did most of her emotions.

And after all, how accurate were the models that forecast in natures casino new york times likelihood that Enron would collapse?

The company knows from past experience what percentage of the drivers it insures will file claims and how much those claims will cost. At the age of 14, in , his mother fled North Korea on foot, walked through live combat, reached the United States and proceeded to become, reportedly, the first Korean woman ever to earn a Ph. Clark hired a few scientists and engineers, and she set to work acquiring more and better data and building better models. At the same time, Americans were cramming themselves and their wealth onto the beach. Building codes in South Florida had not been strictly enforced. Out of the ashes was born a new industry, called reinsurance. The insurance industry had been oblivious to the trends and continued to price catastrophic risk just as it always had, by the seat of its pants. But the financial risk from earthquakes β€” and hurricanes β€” is highly concentrated in a few places. When she returned to the office, her phones were ringing. Clark had been right: the potential financial losses from various catastrophes were too great, and too complicated, to be judged by human intuition. His parents, he suspected, would be appalled. Hurricane Andrew made landfall at 5 on a Monday morning.